Oscar Predictions 2009

I realize I’ve done next to nothing with my blog as of late, so what better way to break the drought than by listing my picks for Oscar winners (along with my choices for “should wins”).  Many years back, I went through an Oscar boycott phase, when I suddenly realized (gasp!) that the Oscars are superficial, political, and entirely unmotivated by artistic concerns.  I also convinced myself that this “sudden” revelation was somehow profound and original.  But now, I realize that it’s more fun, productive, and ultimately satisfying to just laugh at the Oscars and try to get what entertainment I can from them (most likely from unexpected improv moments and slip-ups).  I also came to the conclusion that it’s still fun to bet on them, because you get to see how well you’re attuned to the year’s Hollywood-herd zeitgeist.

This year, it’s especially fun, because it’s damn near impossible to take any lavish awards show seriously amidst recessional turmoil.  The Academy might as well be pissing on the houses of Michigan auto workers.

But that’s a whole ‘nuther story.  Let’s get to the picks.  I’m listing the major categories first.  Here goes…

BEST PICTURE:

Will Win:  Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win (of the nominees):  Milk

Should Win (anyone):  Man on Wire

BEST DIRECTOR:

Will Win:  Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

Should win (of the nominees):  Gus Van Sant, Milk

Should win (anyone):  Hou Hsiao-Hsien, The Flight of the Red Balloon

BEST ACTOR

Will win:  Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Should win (of the nominees):  Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Should win (anyone):  Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win:  Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Should win (of the nominees):  Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Should win (anyone):  Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

BEST ACTRESS

Will win:  Kate Winslet, The Reader

Should win (of the nominees):  Melissa Leo, Frozen River

Should win (anyone):   Melissa Leo, Frozen River

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will win:  Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Should win (of the nominees):  Viola Davis, Doubt

Should win (anyone):  Tilda Swinton, Benjamin Button

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Will Win:  Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win (of the nominees):  Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon

Should Win (anyone):  François Bégaudeau, The Class

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Will Win:  Dustin Lance Black, Milk

Should Win (of the nominees):  Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, Pete Docter, Wall-E

Should Win (anyone):  Jonathan Nolan, Christopher Nolan, David S. Goyer, The Dark Knight

CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Will win:  Slumdog Millionaire

Should win (of the nominees):  Benjamin Button

Should win (anyone):  Silent Light (Stellet Licht)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

Will Win:  Man on Wire

Should Win (of the nominees):  Man on Wire

Should Win (anyone):  Man on Wire (but a close runner-up goes to Up the Yangtze)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:

Will Win:  Waltz with Bashir

Should Win (of the nominees):  The Class

Should win (anyone):  The Flight of the Red Balloon

EDITING:

Will Win:  Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win (of the nominees):  The Dark Knight

Should Win (anyone):  Man on Wire

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Will win:  Wall-E

Should win (of the nominees):  Wall-E

Should win (anyone):  Wall-E

ART DIRECTION:

Will win:  Benjamin Button

Should win (of the nominees):  Benjamin Button

Should win (anyone):  Benjamin Button

COSTUME DESIGN:

Will win:  Benjamin Button

Should win (of the nominees):  Benjamin Button

Should win (anyone):  The Dark Knight

MAKEUP:

Will Win:  Benjamin Button

Should Win (of the nominees):  Benjamin Button

Should Win (anyone):  Benjamin Button

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE):

Will Win:  A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win (of the nominees):  Thomas Newman, Wall-E

Should Win (anyone):  Thomas Newman, Wall-E

MUSIC (ORIGNAL SONG):

Will Win:  “Jai Ho” from Slumdog Millionaire, A.R. Rahman

Should Win (of the nominees):  “Down to Earth” from Wall-E, Peter Gabriel

Should Win (anyone):  “Down to Earth” from Wall-E, Peter Gabriel

SOUND EDITING

Will Win:  Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win (of the nominees):  Wall-E

Should Win (anyone):  Wall-E

SOUND MIXING:

Will Win:  Benjamin Button

Should Win (of the nominees):  Wall-E

Should Win (anyone):  Silent Light (Stellet Licht)

VISUAL EFFECTS:

Will Win:  Benjamin Button

Should Win (of the nominees):  Benjamin Button

Should Win (anyone):   Benjamin Button

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2 comments so far

  1. Matt Haley on

    What are the oscars about again? Something to do with movies? Oh, and I agree that Up the Yangtze was very well done. That scene where the father plods up the embankment carrying a gigantic dresser on his back is a memorable image. So were the canal locks. I think I slightly prefer it to Man on Wire, but I loved both.

  2. Noah on

    You are way off on the sound mixing. Just tell me how you can tell quality sound mixing in a movie and then I’ll tell you why it should be The House Bunny.


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